:Issued: 2012 Jan 13 1309 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20113
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Jan 2012, 1255UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Jan 2012 until 15 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 002
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity remains on quiet to C-flaring levels,
with a possibility for an M-flare in the coming days. AR NOAA 11393 (and
soon AR NOAA 11391) has already rotated of the west limb. NOAA AR 11396
is increasing in size and has capability of producing C-flares and
perhaps an M-flare. Two CMEs occurred yesterday (Jan 12), one after an
eruption on the northeast limb after which large post-eruptive loops
became visible in EUV imagery from SDO/AIA and SWAP. The second CME was
linked to a filament eruption located at central meridian in the
northern hemisphere. STEREO data indicate that these two CME are not
expected to be geoeffective. An elongated coronal hole is visible at
central meridian. The high speed wind stream emanating from it could
induce some perturbed geomagnetic conditions on Jan 16.





TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 045, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 060
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 117
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 034, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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