:Issued: 2012 Jan 14 1256 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20114 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jan 2012, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Jan 2012 until 16 Jan 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 001 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 010 COMMENT: A C4.1 flare has just occurred, peaking at 12h09 UT. SDO/AIA 131 images indicate that the flare is originating in an active region turning on to the east limb. Several new sunspot groups appeared on the disk during the past 48 hours, following new flux emergence: two groups in the northern hemisphere (Cat 11 corresponding to NOAA AR 11396 and Cat 12 corresponding to NOAA AR 11398) and two groups in the southern hemisphere (Cat 13 corresponding to NOAA AR 11397 and Cat 15 for which no NOAA AR is defined yet). These groups have all beta magnetic field configuration and have the capability of producing C-flares. We thus expect eruptive (C-flaring) conditions with a small chance for an M-flare during the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so for the next 24 hours after which some disturbed conditions may follow due to the high speed wind arrival from the narrow elongated coronal hole. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 075, BASED ON 11 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jan 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 092 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 124 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 007 ESTIMATED ISN : 047, BASED ON 20 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#