:Issued: 2012 Jan 16 1244 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jan 2012, 1221UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Jan 2012 until 18 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is expected to reach the M-level due to
NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402 (no Catania numbers yet) near the north-east
limb. However, an Earth-directed CME associated with flares in these
active regions is unlikely. As measured by ACE, the solar wind speed
near the Earth is currently around 420 km/s, and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude around 13 nT. The increase of the IMF
magnitude, as well as the sector boundary crossing in the night of
January 14/15 indicate a possible arrival of a faster solar wind flow
from a narrow low-latitude coronal hole. At the moment the solar wind
speed is still low and the IMF north-south component is fluctuating
around zero, resulting in quiet geomagnetic conditions. However,
isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) are possible.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 095, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 134
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 097, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
14  1314  1318 1320 N14E88 M1.4                                        1401 SolarSoft Events location
END
BT
 
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