:Issued: 2012 Jan 20 1248 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20120
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jan 2012, 1224UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2012 until 22 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402) are
the biggest groups on the solar disk. Flaring activity up to the M-level
is possible in any of the two groups. The flux of solar protons at
energies above 10 MeV started to rise, probably in association with the
propagating interplanetary shock wave driven by the CME on January 19.
At the moment the SEP flux did not pass the event threshold, although
this could occur later today or tomorrow. The Earth is currently inside
a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours. Late on January 21 - early on January 22
we expect a glancing blow from the halo CME on January 19 (possibly
interacting with the halo CME erupted on January 18). Minor to moderate
geomagnetic storm conditions are probable.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 064, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 133
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 157
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 007
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 069, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
19  1344  1605 1750 N32E22 M3.2 SF   100 CTM/1, IV/1            21 1402                     
END
BT
 
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