:Issued: 2012 Jan 22 1245 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2012, 1228UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2012 until 24 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 141 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402
respectively) continue to produce flaring activity on the C-level. We
expect more C-class flares, with an M-class flare possible but not very
likely. The Earth is currently downstream of the shock wave that arrived
at ACE at 05:15 UT today. The solar wind speed is now around 420 km/s
and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 20-25
nT. The north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating between positive and
negative values as the Earth is still situated in the sheath region
between the shock and the ICME. No signatures of the ICME material are
yet detected by ACE. We expect at most a glancing blow from the ICME,
with geomagnetic conditions up to the minor or moderate storm level. The
SEP flux above 10 MeV is fluctuating below the event threshold, but
still significantly above the background level. We expect the proton
flux to decrease, although its increase up to the SEP event level is not
completely excluded.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 068, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 142
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 068, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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