:Issued: 2012 Jan 23 1256 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20123
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Jan 2012, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Jan 2012 until 25 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be eruptive with risks of M
flares from NOAA AR 1402 and possibly from AR 1401. A M8.3 flare
occurred on Jan. 23, in NOAA AR1402, peaking at 0359UT. It triggered a
proton event (reaching about 50 pfu at >50Mev, at the time of this
message). A halo CME was observed by the coronagraphs on board SOHO and
STEREO. It was a fast event (about 1400 km/s as observed by COR2B), and
it is potentially geoeffective, due to its wide latitudinal extension.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach minor storm levels by mid Jan.
24 due to the arrival of the halo CME of today. During the past 24
hours, minor storm conditions were observed at planetary levels due to
the arrival of the CME of Jan. 19th.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 071, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 141
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 038
AK WINGST              : 025
ESTIMATED AP           : 026
ESTIMATED ISN          : 062, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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