:Issued: 2012 Jan 25 1247 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20125 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Jan 2012, 1224UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Jan 2012 until 27 Jan 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 020 COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be eruptive with chances for C class flares from NOAA AR 1402 and 1401. There remains a risk for an M class flare from one of these two regions. The proton event linked to the M8.3 flare of Jan. 23 is still in progress, with >10 MeV proton flux just below 200 pfu. It reached a maximum value of about 6300 pfu on Jan. 24 around 15:30 UT soon after a shock linked to the halo CME of Jan. 23 was observed by ACE. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24 hours, with risks for isolated periods of active conditions. Active conditions are expected by Jan. 27, due to a coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current solar wind conditions are rather quiet with minor disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field; the solar wind speed is still around 600 km/s. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 053, BASED ON 03 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Jan 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 128 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029 AK WINGST : 022 ESTIMATED AP : 022 ESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#