:Issued: 2012 Jan 30 1246 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20130 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jan 2012, 1157UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Jan 2012 until 01 Feb 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 015 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Feb 2012 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 004 COMMENT: The solar activity background has been at low B level, with one C1.3 flare produced by NOAA AR 11410 in the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a chance for a C flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are still above the 10 pfu threshold, and are expected to stay above this threshold throughout January 30. The solar wind speed measured by ACE has gradually decayed from about 450 to about 300 km/s, while the IMF is steady around 4 nT. Within the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions are possible as a result of the fast halo CME accompanying the X1.7 flare of January 27. Quiet to active conditions may prevail on January 31 due to residual CME effects. On February 1, mostly quiet conditions are expected. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 047, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Jan 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 110 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 007 ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#