:Issued: 2012 Jan 05 1236 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jan 2012, 0936UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jan 2012 until 07 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 017
COMMENT: NOAA region 11390 released a C1.9 flare on January 5, peaking
at 07:22 UT. It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst with an
estimated shock velocity of 695 km/s. At the time of writing this
ursigram (12:30 UT), a flare from NOAA region 11392 is ongoing, has
reached C2.1 and is still rising. Solar activity is expected to remain
at C flare level.

During the last 24 hours, ACE solar wind speed has been steadily
decreasing from about 350 km/s to about 300 km/s, while the IMF is
stable around 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet and will likely
remain quiet before the second part of January 6. From that time on,
active conditions are possible with a chance for a minor storm due to
the expected effects of a high speed wind stream associated with an
equatorial coronal hole.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 060, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 181
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 003
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 080, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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