GEOALERT SIDC

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header GEOALERT SIDC
SIDC code xut

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Mar 27 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU087
UGEOA 30512 40327 1237/ 9930/ 
12272 20272 30272 
99999
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 005

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was moderate
to high with 5 M-class flares. The largest flare of the period was an M1.9
flare with peak time 13:30 UTC March 26. This flare originated from Catania
region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on
disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta). This region also produced three further M-class
flares. Catania region 21 (NOAA AR 3614) produced a M1.7 flare with peak
time 13:46 UTC March 26 but is now approaching the west limb. The remaining
regions on disk were stable or in decay and mostly quiet. The solar flaring
activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with
C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an
X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind: The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 650
km/s to around 500 km/s due to the waning influence of the ICME which
arrived on March 24. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and
5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -3 nT.  The
interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive
sector. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease further on March 27
and slow solar wind conditions are expected on March 28 and 29.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
(NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at
quiet to unsettled levels on March 27 and March 28, with isolated active
conditions possible for March 27, while the solar wind speed remains
elevated.


Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was still slightly enhanced but remained below the 10pfu
threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease and remain
below 10 Mev threshold over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below
the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to exceed
this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at
nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to increase to normal to
moderate levels over the next day.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 114, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 40327 1237/ 26/// 
1//// 21780 3012/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
26  1011  1017 1024 ////// M1.0          22/3615      
26  1036  1043 1052 ////// M1.3          22/3615      
26  1255  1330 1341 ////// M1.9          22/3615      
26  1341  1346 1350 ////// M1.7          22/3615      
26  2143  2158 2207 ////// M1.6          ///////      
27  0137  0144 0152 S13W37 M1.1 1F       22/3615      
27  0633  0641 0650 S11W48 M1.1 1N       22/3615      III/1 
END

UGEOR 30512 40327 1237/ ///// ///// 
99999
USSPS 32404 25060 14632 95041 31613 57647 98006 42316 21303 99001 21413
21303 01006 11519 21306 02002 45918 21302 03001 24509 2/801 04001 32419
2/801 05002 15920 21303
USSPS 31405 25080 19432 21011 42217 21306 22107 31713 44678 24005 21313
22307 28014 11419 21308 29003 45717 11306 30001 32618 01204 31003 24209
22302 32003 15819 22303
USSPS 21305 25160 18122 97013 42817 4/801 99143 32213 57670 02005 20914
21307 05016 11118 41309 06003 43419 11305 07002 23910 2/801 09005 15319
1/804 10001 33119 01204
USSPS 81202 26015 15832 91003 46515 11303 83008 43318 2/801 84114 32813
57653 92001 33719 01203 89018 10519 21308 86005 20414 21305 93003 14619
21304 90002 23408 2/801
UMAGF 30503 40327 1004/ 26066 1/018 21222 33332
UMAGF 31523 40327 0000/ 26002 1/012 23213 32333
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Details

The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.
Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.