SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Apr 20 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80420
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Apr 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Apr 2018 until 22 Apr 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Apr 2018  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 035
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Apr 2018  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Apr 2018  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 009
COMMENT: The sunspot group which appeared from the behind of the East solar
limb yesterday got numbered as Catania sunspot group 78 (NOAA AR 2706).
This sunspot group was source of the all (low B-class), flaring activity
during last 24 hours. We expect that Catania sunspot group 78 might be the
source of the B-class flares and possibly also isolated C-class flare in
the following 24 hours.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed since the last report and the
solar protons remain at the background level.

The in situ observations showed sudden increase of the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude (IMF), solar wind speed, density and temperature
at about 23:19 UT yesterday evening. All this indicates arrival of the
shock wave, however presently it is still unclear if the shock wave will be
followed by the ICME or this is a shock in the solar wind related with the
expected arrival of the fast flow.
The shock wave was followed by gradual increase of the solar wind speed and
IMF. The fast solar wind (up to 515 km/s) and longer intervals of negative
values of the Bz component of the IMF (down to -19 nT), resulted in the
active to storm geomagnetic conditions reported this morning (local station
at Dourbes reported K=5 and NOAA reported Kp=6).
The solar wind speed is presently about 480 km/s and the IMF is about 14
nT. If the solar wind speed will continue to increase and the Bz component
will show longer intervals with negative values we can expect continuation
of the disturbed geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 015, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Apr 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 012
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 071
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 011
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 007, BASED ON 39 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.