SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1232 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40318 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Mar 2024, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 001 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 001 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3612 (magnetic type Alpha, Catania group 15) produced an M2 today at 03:32 UTC. NOAA AR 3614 (magnetic type Alpha, Catania group 13) produced the second M-class flare, an M1 today at 04:14 UTC. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flaring activity is expected from the two AR mentioned above and there is a small chance of a proton event. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 420 to 260 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was up to 8 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -1 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 0 to 2 and K BEL 0 to 1) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to remain at quiet levels both globally and locally in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 122, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Mar 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 151 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003 AK WINGST : 001 ESTIMATED AP : 002 ESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 18 0321 0332 0345 ////// M2.7 15/3612 III/1 18 0406 0414 0424 ////// M1.0 21/3614 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.